The End of a Six-Quarter Winning Streak
China just hit the brakes on its longest smartphone growth streak in years. According to fresh data from Counterpoint Research, Q2 2025 smartphone shipments in China slipped 2.4 % year-on-year to 69 million units—the first decline since Q4 2023. IDC’s numbers align within a rounding error, confirming the trend.
If you’re asking:
- “Is now a bad time to upgrade?”
- “Why is Apple losing ground to Huawei again?”
- “Will prices crash or rise?”
…you’re in the right place. Below, we unpack the data, the drivers, and the actionable takeaways for shoppers, investors, and tech watchers alike.
Q2 Smartphone Sales Data China – The Numbers That Matter
| Metric | Counterpoint | IDC |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 shipments | 69.0 M units | 68.7 M units |
| YoY change | –2.4 % | –2.5 % |
| QoQ change | –7.1 % (vs Q1 2025) | –7.3 % |
| Six-quarter streak? | Ended | Ended |
Top 5 Winners & Losers in the China Smartphone Market (Q2 2025)
Huawei – 18.1 % share (+17.6 % YoY)
- Kirin 9010-powered Pura 70 series and sub-$600 Nova 12 line drove volume.
Vivo – 17.9 % share (–10.1 % YoY)
- Lost share in tier-2 cities to Honor and Oppo.
Oppo – 16.2 % share (–3.8 % YoY)
- Inventory correction ahead of Find X8 launch.
Xiaomi – 15.4 % share (+5.3 % YoY)
- Only the Top-5 brands with positive unit growth; Redmi K80 Ultra sold out in 48 h.
Apple – 9.6 M units (–1.6 % YoY)
- ASPs are still the highest, but slipped to 5th place in unit share for the first time since 2020.
Why the Market Declined – Five Root Causes
- Subsidies ran dry
The ¥10 billion national trade-in program that turbo-charged 2024 upgrades tapered off in March 2025. - Consumer-confidence crunch
Youth unemployment at 15.3 % and a sagging property market cooled discretionary spend. - Inventory hangover
Brands over-stocked ahead of the Lunar New Year, leading to a Q2 digestion phase. - 618 festival flop
This year’s mid-year sale focused on clearing old models, not shipping new ones. - AI fatigue
Early Gen-AI features underwhelmed mainstream buyers, lengthening upgrade cycles to 33 months (Canalys).
Apple vs Huawei: A Tale of Two Turnarounds
Apple’s Stumble
- Price strategy: iPhone 16 series got only modest ¥300–¥500 cuts vs 2024 levels.
- AI delay: On-device Apple Intelligence still not fully localized for China—regulators’ approval pending.
- Channel feedback: JD.com listings show iPhone 16 Pro inventory turnover at 17 days vs 9 days for Mate 60 Pro.
Huawei’s Surge
- Kirin comeback: Domestic 7 nm yields improve, easing supply constraints.
- Foldable halo: Nova Flip debuted at ¥4,999—half the price of Samsung’s Z Flip 6 in China.
- Patriotic tailwinds: Post-MWC sentiment surveys show 62 % of 18-29-year-olds prefer “national brands.”
5. Consumer Impact – Buy, Wait, or Switch?
Price Outlook
- ASP rising: Average selling price jumped 6 % YoY to ¥3,050 (Counterpoint) as OEMs push AI flagships.
- Clearance deals: iPhone 15 Pro (256 GB) down to ¥5,799 on Tmall—lowest ever.
Quick Decision Matrix
| Your Situation | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| Need a phone now | Grab 618 clearance stock; expect 10–15 % savings. |
| Can wait 3–4 months | Hold for Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 & Kirin 9020 launches (Sept/Oct). |
| Heavy AI user | Wait for on-device LLMs with >7 B parameters (likely H2 2025). |
Forecasts – What Analysts Expect for H2 2025 & 2026
| Scenario | 2025 YoY | Catalysts |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | –2 % | No new subsidies, macro gloom persists. |
| Base | +1 % to +2 % | Back-to-school promos, iPhone 17 refresh. |
| Bull | +4 % | Fresh ¥20 bn subsidy package, 5G-A rollout accelerates. |
Quote:
“China’s smartphone market is entering a ‘premiumization-or-bust’ phase; brands that can’t sell $800+ AI phones will cede share,” — Will Wong, IDC Asia-Pacific.
Key Takeaways in 60 Seconds
- The Q2 smartphone decline in China is small but symbolic after six quarters of growth.
- Huawei’s resurgence and Apple’s underperformance are the headline stories.
- Consumers win only if they shop clearance now; waiting until H2 2025 might bring better AI devices but higher prices.
- Investors should watch the subsidy policy and Kirin yield reports for the next inflection point.
Key factors currently shaping smartphone sales in China
Government stimulus roll-off
• The ¥10 billion national subsidy programme that turbo-charged 2024 holiday sales was either narrowed or expired in many regions by April 2025, removing a key demand catalyst.
• Because the subsidy applies only to handsets priced below CNY 6,000, Apple’s premium line-up missed most of the benefit, while Huawei and Xiaomi gained share when the programme was active.
Consumer confidence & macro headwinds
• High youth unemployment (15.3 %) and a weak property market have lengthened upgrade cycles to 33 months and dented discretionary spending.
• Analysts cite “broader economic challenges” and “subdued consumer sentiment” as the primary near-term brake on volume.
Inventory & launch timing
• Aggressive Q1 stocking ahead of the Lunar New Year left channels with excess inventory; Q2 became a digestion quarter, muting sell-in.
• OEMs front-loaded flagship launches (Mate 70, Pura 80, Reno 14) in Q1 to ride the subsidy wave, so Q2 lacked new hero devices to stimulate demand.
Competitive dynamics
- Huawei’s resurgence: 18.1 % share in Q2 2025 versus 15 % a year earlier, driven by Kirin-powered flagships and patriotic sentiment.
- Apple’s slide: –1.6 % YoY unit drop in Q2 despite record “618” discounts; high ASPs and delayed localisation of Apple Intelligence are cited as drags.
- Intensifying domestic rivalry (vivo, Oppo, Xiaomi) keeps prices low and marketing spend high, further pressuring volumes.
Technology & price mix shift
- Consumers are holding out for more advanced on-device AI and 5G-A features expected in H2 2025 devices, delaying purchases.
- OEMs are responding by pushing ultra-premium foldables and AI flagships to protect revenue, lifting ASPs 6 % YoY even as units fall.
Seasonal & festival effects
The mid-year “618” festival in June 2025 focused on clearing old inventory rather than launching new models, so lift was limited.
Analysts expect a modest rebound in Q4 when back-to-school and year-end promotions coincide with next-gen chipsets.
Bottom line: The Q2 2025 decline (-2.4 % to -4 % YoY depending on source) is less a collapse than a “subsidy hangover” amplified by macro caution. Unless fresh stimulus appears or AI-driven upgrades ignite replacement demand, the market is likely to tread water until late 2025.
Got questions about your next upgrade? Drop your budget and must-have features in the comments below, and we’ll reply with a personalized pick.
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